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HISTORICAL ANALYSES
Our water resources are found in a variety of forms: lakes, rivers, soil moisture, and ground water. We study the ways in these resources are related to the climate of today and our recent past. This research helps us understand how our water resources may change in response to future climates.
Annual cycles of Lake Ontario water level, 1860 and 1998 The Great Lakes
  • 139 years of Great Lakes lake level data fom NOAA's National Ocean Service were studied
  • Average lake levels are not changing
  • Annual cycle for lakes tends to reach peak and minimum about 1 month earlier now, compared to 1860
  • Changes in annual cycle most prominent in downstream lakes: Ontario (left) and Erie

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Regional Modeling
  • Combined use of a biophysical model (IBIS) with hydrologic routing (HyDRA) to study large scale water resources
  • Simulated parts of the hydrologic cycle not currently observed, e.g. soil moisture variability (right)
  • Regional climate and the Great Lakes interact to influence runoff both in and out of the Great Lakes basin.

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modeled interannual variability of winter soil moisture
Small Lakes Trout lake area modeled ground water recharge
  • Analyzed data from Trout Lake area in Northern Wisconsin, modeled hydrologic balance
  • Lake Ice-on period has decreased in recent years
  • Evaporation from lake highly correlated to water-air temperature difference
  • Groundwater recharge estimates (left) suggest that land cover has a major influence on the amount of water flowing into lakes.

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